A Clinical Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Two Different Formulations of Topical Calcipotriol in Patients With Mild to Moderate Plaque Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientpatientsentrydiseaseuncontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisplaqueand safetyefficacy andmoderate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Calcipotriol Plus Betamethasone Dipropionate Gel Compared With Tacalcitol Ointment and the Gel Vehicle Alone in Patients With Psoriasis Vulgaris NCT00670241 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Trial To Evaluate The Efficacy And Safety Of MC2-01 Cream Compared To CAL/BDP Gel and Vehicle In Plaque Psoriasis Subjects NCT07357831 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• LEO 80185 in the Treatment of Psoriasis Vulgaris on the Non-scalp Regions of the Body (Trunk and/or Limbs) NCT01188928 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Calcipotriol Plus Hydrocortisone Ointment in Psoriasis Vulgaris on the Face and Skin Folds NCT00691002 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Maximal Use Trial Evaluating the Pharmacokinetic Profile of MC2-01 Cream NCT03462927 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.