A Phase 2b Study to Evaluate RIST4721 in Palmoplantar Pustulosis (PPP)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationsubject isleast monthsweeksextension
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatemoderateand safetypsoriasis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate RIST4721 in Palmoplantar Pustulosis (PPP) NCT03988335 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Study of Subcutaneous Risankizumab Injection to Assess Change in Palmoplantar Pustulosis Area and Severity Index [PPPASI] in Adult Japanese Participants With Palmoplantar Pustulosis NCT04451720 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Study of Subcutaneous (Injected Under the Skin) Risankizumab to Assess Change in Disease Symptoms in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis With Palmoplantar Involvement NCT04713592 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Two Different Dose Regimens of Risankizumab Administered Subcutaneously in Japanese Subjects With Generalized Pustular Psoriasis or Erythrodermic Psoriasis NCT03022045 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Initial Dosing of BI 655130 in Palmoplantar Pustulosis Patients NCT03135548 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.