Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy Combined With Immunotherapy for MSS Ultra-low Rectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (131 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpatientrectalcelladenocarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: effectdiseasesthe uppertimes thebleeding
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Preoperative Short-course Radiation Followed by Envafolimab Plus CAPEOX for MSS Locally Advanced Rectal Adenocarcinoma (PRECAM) NCT05216653 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Safety and Feasibility of PD-1 Blockade in the Treatment of dMMR or MSI-H Rectal Cancer NCT04357587 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Assessment of Efficacy and Safety of PD-1 Monoclonal Antibody Combined With IL-2 and CapeOX in Neoadjuvant Therapy for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Prior to Surgery: A Prospective, Multi-center, Randomized Controlled Study NCT06884670 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Interleucin-2 Combined With PD-1 Monoclonal Antibody and CAPOX in Preoperative Neoadjuvant Therapy for Mid-low Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer - a Single-center, Single-arm, Open-label Clinical Trail NCT06108596 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Total Neoadjuvant Treatment Without Surgery For Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer NCT03565029 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.