Testing Obeticholic Acid for Familial Adenomatous Polyposis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2026-04-17, after 2023-01-19 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerantiretroviralwomen ofriskcardiac
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsindividualschildrenscreening -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 37.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 1452 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 139 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1452 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 19.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 139 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5715 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 331 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 37.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- obeticholic acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase 3 Study of Obeticholic Acid in Patients With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis NCT01473524 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Combination Obeticholic Acid (OCA) and Statins for Monitoring of Lipids (CONTROL) NCT02633956 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Single Dose and Multiple Dose Trial to Assess Pharmacokinetics of Obeticholic Acid (OCA) NCT01933503 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Obeticholic Acid (OCA) in Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC) NCT02177136 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Aldafermin (NGM282) for Chronic Diarrhea Due to Bile Acid Malabsorption (BAM) NCT05130047 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.