Lurbinectedin in Patients With Advanced Gastrointestinal Malignancies With DNA Repair Mutations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hepatitisviruspriorpatientuln
  Phrases that lowered it: multipleaccordinggastrointestinalmaleand safety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of Ulixertinib in Combination With Hydroxychloroquine in Patients With Advanced Gastrointestinal (GI) Malignancies NCT05221320 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Trial of Lurbinectedin as Single-agent or in Combination With Irinotecan Versus Topotecan or Irinotecan in Patients With Relapsed Small-cell Lung Cancer (LAGOON) NCT05153239 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Safety Tolerability Pharmacokinetic and Preliminary Efficacy in Chinese Advanced Solid Tumors Patients NCT04638491 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Study of Palbociclib in Combination With Binimetinib for Patients With Advanced KRAS Mutant Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03170206 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Study on Tuvusertib (Oral ATR Inhibitor) in Combination With PLX038 (Topo1 Inhibitor) in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT06337630 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.