A Phase 2 Study of Hemay007 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningthe investigatordouble blindbloodrandomized double
  Phrases that lowered it: ulncountinfectionliverfirst dose
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of TACI-antibody Fusion Protein Injection (RC18) in Subjects with Inadequate Response to MTX Due to Treat Moderate and Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis. NCT03016013 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Proximod, a Selective Sphingosine-1-phosphate Receptor 1 Modulator in Patients With Moderate-to-severe Active Rheumatoid Arthritis: a Double-blind, Randomised, Placebo-controlled, Phase 2 Trial. NCT07335952 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Clinical Study of Single Dose IL-6R mAb Injection in RA Patients NCT05232396 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety and Efficacy of HLX01+MTX in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03522415 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• A Randomised, Double-blind, Phase I/II Study to Evaluate the PK, PD, Safety, and Efficacy Between HLX01 and Rituximab in Patients With Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis and Inadequate Response to Treatment With DMARDs NCT03355872 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.