Single, Ascending Dose, First Time in Human Study for GZR18 in Healthy Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectascendingbowelsubjects withdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyproductssafety ofsinglescreening
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Relative Bioavailability of Tablet Formulations of GSK2248761 in Healthy Adult Subjects. SGN114435 NCT01209117 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Blood Levels and Effects of GSK1325756 in Healthy Adult Volunteers Aged 40 to 80 Years Old NCT01267006 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• IV Dose Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, PK, PD and Immunogenicity of ARGX-113 in Healthy Volunteers NCT03457649 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare the PK, PD and Safety and Tolerability of a SC With an IV Formulation of ARGX-113 in Healthy Male Subjects NCT03334084 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Pharmacokinetics, Safety and Tolerability of Repeat Oral Doses of Darapladib (SB-480848) in Subjects With Severe Renal Impairment NCT01711723 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.