Evaluation of Avatrombopag for the Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Japanese Adults With Chronic ITP

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulnreceivingsubjects withchemotherapyheart
  Phrases that lowered it: dayevaluate thejapanesesafetythe efficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 27.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Avatrombopag for the Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Pediatric Subjects With Immune Thrombocytopenia for ≥6 Months NCT04516967 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind,Active-controlled, Parallel-group Trial With an Open-labelExtension Phase to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of OralE5501 Versus Eltrombopag, in Adults With Chronic ImmuneThrombocytopenia (Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura) NCT01433978 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Efficacy, and Pharmacokinetics of ARGX-113 in Patients With ITP NCT03102593 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Oral E5501 Plus Standard of Care for the Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Adults With Chronic Immune Thrombocytopenia (Amendment 02) NCT01438840 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Immunoglobulin Intravenous (Human) 10% (NewGam) in Primary Immune Thrombocytopenia NCT01349790 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.