Effects of Oral Aloe Vera Juice on Chemotherapy and Radiation-induced Oral Mucositis and Esophagitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: effectsradiationto determinedetermine whetherchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: oralesophagitisjuicesingleconsent form
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparison Between the Effect of Aloe Vera and Benzydamine Hydrochloride Mouth Gel on Prevention of Pain and Progression of Radiation-induced Oral Mucositis NCT06862817 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Compare the Efficacy of Aloe Vera Mouthwash With Non- Alcoholic Chlorhexidine Mouthwash on Periodontal Diseases NCT02560870 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Local Drug Delivery of Aloe Vera Gel in Chronic Periodontitis NCT02462993 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Trial of a Botanical Drug Containing East Indian Sandalwood Oil (EISO) for the Treatment of Oral Mucositis NCT02399228 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Melatonin Oral Gel for Oral Mucositis in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer Undergoing Chemoradiation NCT02630004 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.