Prophylaxis of Post-ERCP Acute Pancreatitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (234 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-10-12, after 2022-05-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsiimyocardialventricularfailure
Phrases that lowered it: open labelcomparerespiratoryallergyhypersensitivity -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 29 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 13215 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1135 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 78.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- indomethacin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Lactated Ringers With or Without Rectal Indomethacin to Prevent Post-ERCP Pancreatitis NCT02641561 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Trial of Aggressive Hydration Versus Rectal Indomethacin for Prevention of Post-ERCP Pancreatitis NCT03629600 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Rectal Indomethacin to Prevent Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) Pancreatitis NCT01774604 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
- Prophylaxis Against Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangio-Pancreatography Pancreatitis. NCT07599605 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Indomethacin Decreases Post-ERCP Pancreatitis NCT02110810 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.