PET Imaging Study of α7 and α4β2-nAChR in Schizophrenia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (145 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: schizophreniadsmmribrainsubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: healthysafety ofbodywaydrug
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 811 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 161 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dopaminergic Modulation of Brain Activation Using Simultaneous PET/Pharmacological MRI NCT03326245 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• PET Imaging of Neuroinflammation in Neurodegenerative Diseases Via a Novel Translocator Protein (TSPO) Radioligand NCT03958630 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• Initial Investigation of [18F]P16-129 in Alzheimer's Disease Patients and Healthy Volunteers NCT03902548 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• PET Trial to Assess the Receptor Occupancy of Brexpiprazole in Adult Subjects With Schizophrenia NCT01854944 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Investigate the Effect of an Investigational Drug as an Added Medication to an Antipsychotic, in Adults With Schizophrenia, as Measured Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Imaging NCT04038957 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.