Surufatinib Combined With TAS-102 in Third-line and Later-line Therapy of Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-05-10, after 2023-01-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pancreaticcarcinomacancerventricularhepatitis
Phrases that lowered it: diseasessafety ofsingleand safetyefficacy and -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 40.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 179 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 221 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 221 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 179 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16209 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1779 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 76.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 40.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- surufatinib, tipiracil, trifluridine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- TAS-102 (Lonsurf) in Metastatic or Locally Advanced Unresectable Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Post First Line Chemotherapy (UF-STO-PANC-003) NCT02921737 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
- Phase III Study of Surufatinib in Treating Advanced Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors NCT02589821 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Regorafenib Plus Gemcitabine in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT02383433 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
- A Multi-Center, Open-Label Study of Surufatinib (HMPL-012) in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT02549937 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Phase Ib/II Study of Sulfatinib in Treating Advanced Neuroendocrine Tumors NCT02267967 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.