STRIDES - a Clinical Research Study of an Investigational New Drug to Treat Spinocerebellar Ataxia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (63 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multiplesclerosispriorplacebo controlleddiagnosis
  Phrases that lowered it: participantaminotransferasekgsafetyhepatitis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A 6 Month, Open-Label, Pilot Futility Clinical Trial of Oral Salsalate for Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT02422485 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacodynamic, and Pharmacokinetics Study of Olipudase Alfa in Patients With Acid Sphingomyelinase Deficiency NCT02004691 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Tolerability of STSA-1301 Subcutaneous Injection in Healthy Subjects NCT06148389 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Dose Exploration Study of CTI-1601 in Adult Subjects With Friedreich's Ataxia NCT05579691 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Tolerability of STSA-1005 Following Intravenous Infusion in Healthy Subjects NCT05085197 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.