Evaluating Pembrolizumab, Trastuzumab and FLOT as Perioperative Treatment of HER2-positive, Localized Esophagogastric Adenocarcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-08-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: adenocarcinomacarcinomamritherapyof study
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantslungperiodpatients
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 101294 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18612 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Chemotherapy and Pembrolizumab, Followed by Pembrolizumab and Olaparib As Firstline Therapy in Her-2 Negative Gastric/GEJ Adenocarcinoma NCT05268510 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Phase II Trial of Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab for Patients With Early Stage Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma NCT04089904 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Trial of Pembrolizumab With Trastuzumab and Chemotherapy in Advanced HER2 Positive Esophagogastric (EG) Cancer NCT02954536 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Perioperative Chemo and Pembrolizumab in Gastric Cancer NCT02918162 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab and Chemoradiotherapy for the Treatment of Unresectable Gastroesophageal Cancer NCT04522336 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.