Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy, Tislelizumab With Afatinib for HNSCC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerand neckcellhead andcarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetysafety ofpulmonary80hypertension
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14381 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 141128 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neoadjuvant Tislelizumab With Afatinib for Resectable Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT05517330 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Low-dose Radiotherapy Plus Tislelizumab in Combination With Afatinib for Neoadjuvant Treatment of Surgically Resectable Head and Neck Squamous Carcinoma NCT06494189 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial Comparing Low-Dose RT + Targeted Therapy+ Immunotherapy vs Targeted Therapy+ Immunotherapy Alone as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Operable HNSCC Patients. NCT07040956 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Afatinib and Pembrolizumab for Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ALPHA Study) NCT03695510 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Study of Cetuximab in Combination With Chemotherapy in Patients With Recurrent and/or Metastatic Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck (SCCHN) NCT00971932 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.