Rituximab Effect on Decreasing glUcoCorticoid Exposition in PolyMyalgia Rheumatica Patients Recently Diagnosed

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (35 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: months priorplaceboprior to30effect
  Phrases that lowered it: rituximabefficacyjudgeddiseasestrial
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 164769 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Abatacept in earLy Onset Polymyalgia Rheumatica: Study ALORS NCT03632187 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study of Efficacy and Safety of Secukinumab Versus Placebo, in Combination With Glucocorticoid Taper Regimen, in Patients With Polymyalgia Rheumatica (PMR) NCT05767034 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of tocilizuMAb Versus Placebo in Polymyalgia rHeumatica With glucocORticoid dEpendence SEMAPHORE NCT02908217 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Delayed Release Prednisone in PMR NCT02702778 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
• A Trial of Prednisolone in Combination With SPI-62 or Placebo in Subjects With Polymyalgia Rheumatica (PMR) NCT05436652 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.