Paxlovid for Treatment of Long Covid
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-09-12, after 2022-11-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: greater thanconfirmedbrainposttreated
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineinfluenzaparticipantparticipantsritonavir -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 874 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 173 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 874 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 173 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 38260 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1712 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nirmatrelvir, ritonavir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of JT001 (VV116) Compared With Paxlovid NCT05341609 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Study of RSLV-132 in Subjects With Long COVID NCT04944121 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- A Decentralized, Randomized Phase 2 Efficacy and Safety Study of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir in Adults with Long COVID. NCT05668091 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- Non-inferiority Trial on Treatments in Early COVID-19 NCT05321394 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Tafenoquine in Patients With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 NCT04533347 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.