A Comparative Clinical Trial Evaluating the Effect and Safety of Tacrolimus Versus Hydrocortisone

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: childrensystemicskintacrolimus30
  Phrases that lowered it: effectrhinitisasthmaand safetydermatitis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 153 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 134 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 207954 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Bioequivalence of Two Tacrolimus 0.1% Topical Ointment Formulations in Patients With Atopic Dermatitis NCT00833079 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Emollients in the Management of Atopic Dermatitis NCT01779258 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• To Study Generic Tacrolimus Ointment, 0.1% in the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis (Inflammation of Skin: Itchy, Red, Swollen, and Cracked Skin) NCT02601703 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Effect of OC000459 on Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT02002208 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• DMT210 Topical Gel in the Treatment of Atopic Dermatitis NCT02949960 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.