Study of Elenestinib (BLU-263) in Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis (AdvSM) and and Other KIT Altered Hematologic Malignancies

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: prostatecellrefractorydeterminecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: participantraparticipantsaminotransferaseopen label
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 39.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 16 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• (PATHFINDER) Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Avapritinib (BLU-285), A Selective KIT Mutation-targeted Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor, in Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis NCT03580655 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• (EXPLORER) Study of BLU-285 in Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis (AdvSM) and Relapsed or Refractory Myeloid Malignancies NCT02561988 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Safety,and Efficacy of Omacetaxine Given Subcutaneously as a Fixed Dose in Patients With Chronic Phase (CP) or Accelerated Phase (AP) Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) (Referred to as the SYNSINCT Study) NCT02078960 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Brentuximab Vedotin in Treating Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis or Mast Cell Leukemia NCT01807598 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Nelfinavir Mesylate and Bortezomib in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Progressive Advanced Hematologic Cancer NCT01164709 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.