(PATHFINDER) Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Avapritinib (BLU-285), A Selective KIT Mutation-targeted Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor, in Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patient hascellcancersitupatient must
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andand safetysafety ofthe efficacyaminotransferase
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• (EXPLORER) Study of BLU-285 in Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis (AdvSM) and Relapsed or Refractory Myeloid Malignancies NCT02561988 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Study of Elenestinib (BLU-263) in Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis (AdvSM) and and Other KIT Altered Hematologic Malignancies NCT05609942 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Midostaurin in Patients With Aggressive Systemic Mastocytosis or Mast Cell Leukemia NCT00782067 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Brentuximab Vedotin in Treating Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis or Mast Cell Leukemia NCT01807598 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Subcutaneous Sarilumab in Improving the Quality of Life in People With Indolent Systemic Mastocytosis NCT03770273 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.