Efficacy and Safety of Midostaurin in Patients With Aggressive Systemic Mastocytosis or Mast Cell Leukemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-08-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiapulmonaryto determinecellpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyefficacy andand safetysafety oftwice
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 178 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 8 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• (PATHFINDER) Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Avapritinib (BLU-285), A Selective KIT Mutation-targeted Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor, in Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis NCT03580655 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Study of Elenestinib (BLU-263) in Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis (AdvSM) and and Other KIT Altered Hematologic Malignancies NCT05609942 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Brentuximab Vedotin in Treating Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis or Mast Cell Leukemia NCT01807598 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Masitinib in Severe Indolent or Smoldering Systemic Mastocytosis NCT00814073 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Obatoclax for Systemic Mastocytosis NCT00918931 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.