Masitinib in Severe Indolent or Smoldering Systemic Mastocytosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellpatientfailurecellsventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: kgdaymoderatecompareobjective
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Midostaurin in Patients With Aggressive Systemic Mastocytosis or Mast Cell Leukemia NCT00782067 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• (PATHFINDER) Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Avapritinib (BLU-285), A Selective KIT Mutation-targeted Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor, in Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis NCT03580655 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Treatment of Indolent Systemic Mastocytosis With PA101 NCT02478957 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Subcutaneous Sarilumab in Improving the Quality of Life in People With Indolent Systemic Mastocytosis NCT03770273 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Brentuximab Vedotin in Treating Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis or Mast Cell Leukemia NCT01807598 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.