Obatoclax for Systemic Mastocytosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 40% for any early termination, 25% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellheartleukemiacarcinomasquamous
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofupperadministrationsystemicthe study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 175 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 184 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• (PATHFINDER) Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Avapritinib (BLU-285), A Selective KIT Mutation-targeted Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor, in Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis NCT03580655 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Midostaurin in Patients With Aggressive Systemic Mastocytosis or Mast Cell Leukemia NCT00782067 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• The Effect of Xolair ® (Omalizumab) in Mastocytosis Patients NCT01333293 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Brentuximab Vedotin in Treating Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis or Mast Cell Leukemia NCT01807598 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• (EXPLORER) Study of BLU-285 in Patients With Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis (AdvSM) and Relapsed or Refractory Myeloid Malignancies NCT02561988 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.