Dose-ranging Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of AMG 133 in Adult Subjects With Overweight or Obesity, With or Without Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diagnosisobstructivediabetesdisordertype
  Phrases that lowered it: kgmultiplescreeningbodythe efficacy
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 651 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 61 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial to Compare the Extent to Which Maridebart Cafraglutide (AMG 133) is Made Available in the Body When Administered Using Two Subcutaneous Presentations NCT07313761 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Comparing the Extent to Which Maridebart Cafraglutide (AMG 133) is Made Available in the Body When Administered Using Two Subcutaneous (SC) Presentations NCT07226778 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• AMG 151 Amgen Protocol Number 20100761 NCT01464437 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate AMG 133 in Chinese Participants With Obesity or Overweight NCT06352892 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Investigate Effect of AMG 151 on 24-hour Ambulatory Blood Pressure & Glucose Levels in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Subjects NCT01755442 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.