A Study of TAK-861 in Participants With Narcolepsy Type 2
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-12-25, after 2023-01-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: dsmmentaldepressionpsychoticischemic
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsevaluate thethe effecteffect of -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 548 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 65 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 16 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 548 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 65 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of TAK-861 in Participants With Narcolepsy Type 1 NCT05687903 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- A Study of TAK-861 in People With Narcolepsy Type 1 NCT06505031 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- A Study of TAK-861 for the Treatment of Narcolepsy Type 1 NCT06470828 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of TAK-925 in Healthy Volunteers and Participants With Narcolepsy NCT03748979 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study of TAK-994 in Adults With Type 1 and Type 2 Narcolepsy NCT04096560 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.