A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study With an Open-Label, Long-Term Safety Phase to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of TV-44749 in Adults With Schizophrenia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: schizophreniadsmalzheimerdisorderdiagnosis
  Phrases that lowered it: participantevaluate theparticipantsto evaluatemedical history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Open-Label Trial to Assess the Comparative Bioavailability of TV-44749 to Oral Olanzapine in Participants With Schizophrenia NCT06315283 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Long-term Safety and Tolerability of an Investigational Drug in People With Schizophrenia. NCT04115319 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Open-label Trial Characterizing the PK of 3 SC Olanzapine Extended-release Formulations in Participants With Schizophrenia/Schizoaffective Disorder NCT06319170 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate TV-46000 as Maintenance Treatment in Adult and Adolescent Participants With Schizophrenia NCT03503318 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Trial of the Efficacy and the Safety of RO6889450 (Ralmitaront) vs Placebo in Patients With an Acute Exacerbation of Schizophrenia or Schizoaffective Disorder NCT04512066 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.