Study of Obeldesivir in Nonhospitalized Participants With COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-01-23, after 2023-02-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationhourskeymay applydisease
Phrases that lowered it: participantsdays before19and safetyefficacy and -
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 483 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 64 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 483 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 19.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 35 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- obeldesivir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Obeldesivir in Participants With COVID-19 Who Have a High Risk of Developing Serious or Severe Illness NCT05603143 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
- Study of Obeldesivir in Children and Adolescents With COVID-19 NCT05996744 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Test BI 767551 in People With Mild to Moderate Symptoms of COVID-19 NCT04822701 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of C19-IG 20% in SARS-CoV-2 Infected Asymptomatic Ambulatory Outpatients NCT04847141 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of JT001 (VV116) Compared With Favipiravir NCT05279235 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.