A Study to Test BI 767551 in People With Mild to Moderate Symptoms of COVID-19

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (47 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: paininfusionoxygenchronicpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: nasalreceiptparticipantsvisitvaccine
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 638 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 84 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Plasma for Early Treatment in Non-hospitalised Mild or Moderate COVID-19 Patients NCT04621123 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of TF0023 in Treatments for COVID-19 in Hospitalized Adults NCT05212818 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
• Phase 1/2 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Inhaled IBIO123 in Participants With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Illness NCT05298813 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Study of Obeldesivir in Nonhospitalized Participants With COVID-19 NCT05715528 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study of AZD7442 for Treatment of COVID-19 in Outpatient Adults NCT04723394 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.