A Study of AZD3427 in Participants With Heart Failure and Pulmonary Hypertension Group 2

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartleftmmhgventricularpulmonary
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantdosecombinationfev1
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1810 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 175 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Frespaciguat (MK-5475) in Participants With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (INSIGNIA-PAH: Phase 2/3 Study of an Inhaled sGC Stimulator in PAH) (MK-5475-007) NCT04732221 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• REGN5381 in Heart Failure Adult Participants With Elevated Pulmonary Capillary Wedge Pressure NCT05353166 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Study of Sotatercept in Japanese Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) Participants (MK-7962-020) NCT05818137 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Study of HS135 in Obese Patients With Pulmonary Hypertension and Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT06581159 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Pharmacodynamic Effects of Riociguat in Pulmonary Hypertension and Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT02744339 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.