Long-term Safety of BCX9930 in Participants With Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: opinion ofthe opinionlong termin subjectsterm safety
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsafety ofparticipantsevaluate theto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Long-Term Safety Study of BCX9930 in Participants With Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) NCT04702568 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• An Extension Clinical Study of BCD-148 for the Treatment of Patients With PNH Previously Treated in Clinical Study No. BCD-148-2/NOCTURN NCT06987864 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• BCX9930 for the Treatment of Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) in Participants Not Receiving Other Complement Inhibitor Therapy NCT05116787 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Dose Escalation of BCX10013 in Participants with Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) NCT06100900 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• BCX9930 for the Treatment of Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) in Participants With Inadequate Response to C5 Inhibitor Therapy NCT05116774 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.