A Study to Assess the Effect of Dexpramipexole in Adolescents and Adults With Severe Eosinophilic Asthma.

NCT05763121 on ClinicalTrials.gov Phase 3 Areteia Therapeutics (industry) Started 2023-01-30 Terminated

Riskier than 17% of active trials

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

How it ended

Terminated on 2025-12-08, after 2023-01-30 start.

Reason given by the sponsor: “safety”

The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

What moved the score

Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: msheartcardiacchronicventricular
Phrases that lowered it: asthmaparticipantsparticipantvisitbronchodilator
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

The trial

Design

Phase: 3 (typical: 2)
Number of arms: 3 (typical: 2)
Allocation: randomized
Design: parallel
Primary purpose: treatment
Blinding: double (typical: none)
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (typical: 56% yes)
Responsible party: sponsor
Collaborators: 0
Keywords listed: 8 (typical: 1)

Who can join

Minimum age: 12 (typical: 18)
Maximum age: 99 (typical: 71)
Sex: all
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (typical: 9% yes)

Sponsor's track record

Sponsor type: industry (typical: academic or other)
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (typical: 32)
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (typical: 19)

Drug's FDA history

Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 1
Drug has FAERS history: Yes (typical: 64% yes)
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2 (typical: 2148)
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 1 (typical: 412.5)
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (typical: 85.6%)
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (typical: 15.9%)

Disease area and drugs

Disease areas: respiratory, immunology, hematology
Drugs matched to FDA substances: dexpramipexole

Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.

Similar finished trials

A Study to Assess the Effect of Dexpramipexole in Adolescents and Adults With Severe Eosinophilic Asthma (EXHALE-3) NCT05813288 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
STEP: Phase IIIb Study of Benralizumab to Step-down Maintenance Therapy in Patients With Severe Eosinophilic Asthma NCT06465485 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
A Study of the Effectiveness and Safety of Different Doses of Fluticasone Propionate Taken From a Dry Powder Inhaler in Adolescents and Adults Who Have Asthma That is Not Controlled by Asthma Medications Not Containing Steroids NCT01479621 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
A Study Testing the Superiority of CHF 1535 pMDI 800/24µg Total Daily Dose Compared With CHF 718 pMDI 800µg Total Daily Dose in Adults With Asthma on Medium or High-Dose Inhaled Corticosteroid NCT05292586 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
A Safety, Pharmacokinetic, and Pharmacodynamic Study of Once Daily Inhaled AZD8630 in Adults With Asthma NCT06795906 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.