A Study of Daily Oral Orforglipron (LY3502970) Compared With Insulin Glargine in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Obesity or Overweight at Increased Cardiovascular Risk

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1540 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 133 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14514 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acutechronicaminotransferaseulndays prior
  Phrases that lowered it: multiplemetformingastricdrugsdays before

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Orforglipron in Adult Participants With Obesity or Overweight and Type 2 Diabetes NCT05872620 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Adult Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Inadequate Glycemic Control With Diet and Exercise Alone NCT05971940 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Inadequate Glycemic Control With Insulin Glargine, With or Without Metformin and/or SGLT-2 Inhibitor NCT06109311 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Long-term Safety Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT06010004 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) Compared With Semaglutide in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Inadequately Controlled With Metformin NCT06045221 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.