A Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Adult Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Inadequate Glycemic Control With Diet and Exercise Alone
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-04-03, after 2023-08-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationplaceboacuteheartmacular
Phrases that lowered it: participantsbodykgoralonce daily -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1568 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 142 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1568 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 142 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- orforglipron
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Orforglipron in Adult Participants With Obesity or Overweight and Type 2 Diabetes NCT05872620 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- A Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Inadequate Glycemic Control With Insulin Glargine, With or Without Metformin and/or SGLT-2 Inhibitor NCT06109311 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Long-term Safety Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT06010004 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- A Study of Daily Oral Orforglipron (LY3502970) Compared With Insulin Glargine in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Obesity or Overweight at Increased Cardiovascular Risk NCT05803421 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- A Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) Compared With Dapagliflozin in Adult Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Inadequate Glycemic Control With Metformin NCT06192108 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.