First-in-Human Dose Escalation Study of AFM28 in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantleukemiasubjects withcancermarrow
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsopen labeldrugmultiplepharmacodynamics
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Adoptive Cellular Therapy Using Autologous T Cells Transduced With Lentivirus to Express a CD33 Specific Chimeric Antigen Receptor in Patients With Relapsed or Refractory CD33-Positive Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT03126864 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 1 Trial of CD33xCD3 BsAb in Pediatric Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT05077423 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy Study for AC220 to Treat Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) NCT00989261 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• FT538 in Subjects With Advanced Hematologic Malignancies NCT04614636 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• First-in-human Study of SAR443579 Infusion in Male and Female Children and Adult Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia (R/R AML), B-cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (B-ALL), High Risk-myelodysplasia (HR-MDS), or Blastic Plasmacytoid Dendritic Cell Neoplasm (BPDCN) NCT05086315 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.