Efficacy and Safety of Minocycline in Patients With Moderate to Severe Acute Ischemic Stroke

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ischemicstrokehemorrhageacuteonset
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofphysicaladministration
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 15700 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Maimonides Minocycline in Stroke Study NCT06107725 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Study of a Neuroprotective Drug to Limit the Extent of Damage From an Ischemic Stroke NCT00630396 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Treatment Evaluation of Acute Stroke for Using in Regenerative Cell Elements NCT02961504 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of MEXIDOL® in Ischemic Stroke Therapy NCT02793687 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Mexidol® in Stroke Therapy NCT06437626 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.