Maimonides Minocycline in Stroke Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (107 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-05-09, after 2023-11-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: strokeonsethoursacuteischemic
Phrases that lowered it: participantsopen labelpatientsmeasurablestandard -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 16360 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 23 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 21.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16360 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1216 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 74.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- minocycline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of a Neuroprotective Drug to Limit the Extent of Damage From an Ischemic Stroke NCT00630396 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Minocycline in Patients With Moderate to Severe Acute Ischemic Stroke NCT05836740 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- A Pilot Study of Minocycline in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Patients NCT01805895 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Neuroprotection in Acute Ischemic Stroke NCT03320018 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Safety and Feasibility of Minocycline in the Treatment of Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) NCT01058395 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.