Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ESC-derived Dopamine Progenitor Cell Therapy in PD Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-12-10, after 2023-05-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 40.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellstagecellspatientbrain
Phrases that lowered it: singleevaluate theadministration ofsubjectsscreening -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5057 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5057 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 218 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 40.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dopamine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety of Neural Stem Cells in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT02452723 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic Bone Marrow-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cell Therapy for Idiopathic Parkinson's Disease NCT02611167 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Phase 1 Safety and Tolerability Study of MSK-DA01 Cell Therapy for Advanced Parkinson's Disease NCT04802733 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of DA-9805 for Parkinson's Disease NCT03189563 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Early ParkinSon wIth L-DOPA/DDCI and OpicapoNe (EPSILON Study) NCT04978597 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.