Allogeneic Bone Marrow-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cell Therapy for Idiopathic Parkinson's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-09-18, after 2017-11-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreaterbrainparkinson disease
Phrases that lowered it: copdasthmapulmonary diseasechronic obstructiveobstructive pulmonary -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 71 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 201 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 45 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 201 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 71 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase IIa Randomized Placebo Controlled Trial: Mesenchymal Stem Cells as a Disease-modifying Therapy for Idiopathic Parkinson's Disease NCT04506073 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety of Neural Stem Cells in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT02452723 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ESC-derived Dopamine Progenitor Cell Therapy in PD Patients NCT05887466 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Intrathecal Administration of Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cell-derived Neural Progenitors (MSC-NP) in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis NCT01933802 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Phase 1 Safety and Tolerability Study of MSK-DA01 Cell Therapy for Advanced Parkinson's Disease NCT04802733 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.