Phase IIa Randomized Placebo Controlled Trial: Mesenchymal Stem Cells as a Disease-modifying Therapy for Idiopathic Parkinson's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-07-30, after 2020-11-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diseaseheartkidneyinjuryplacebo controlled
Phrases that lowered it: asthmavisitdisorderderivedtrial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 79 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mesenchymal stem cells
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Allogeneic Bone Marrow-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cell Therapy for Idiopathic Parkinson's Disease NCT02611167 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Phase 1 Safety and Tolerability Study of MSK-DA01 Cell Therapy for Advanced Parkinson's Disease NCT04802733 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety of Neural Stem Cells in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT02452723 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Autologous Mesenchymal Stromal Cells for Multiple Sclerosis NCT02495766 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ESC-derived Dopamine Progenitor Cell Therapy in PD Patients NCT05887466 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.