A Study Evaluating The Efficacy and Safety of Neoadjuvant Immunotherapy Combinations in Patients With Surgically Resectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

NCT05908786 on ClinicalTrials.gov Phase 1/2 Hoffmann-La Roche (industry) Started 2023-12-05 Terminated

Riskier than 49% of active trials

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

How it ended

Terminated on 2025-11-13, after 2023-12-05 start.

Reason given by the sponsor: “business”

The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

What moved the score

Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Sponsor's past trials: 1329 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 80 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: of studystudy treatmentresectionresectablepatients
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsopenlabeland safety
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 131963 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

The trial

Design

Phase: 1/2 (typical: 2)
Number of arms: 3 (typical: 2)
Allocation: randomized
Design: parallel
Primary purpose: treatment
Blinding: none
Has a data monitoring committee: No (typical: 56% yes)
Responsible party: sponsor
Collaborators: 0
Keywords listed: 0 (typical: 1)

Who can join

Minimum age: 18
Maximum age: not given (typical: 71)
Sex: all
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (typical: 9% yes)

Sponsor's track record

Sponsor type: industry (typical: academic or other)
Sponsor's past trials: 1329 (typical: 32)
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.4% (typical: 9.9%)
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 80 (typical: 19)

Drug's FDA history

Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (typical: 1)
Drug has FAERS history: Yes (typical: 64% yes)
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 131963 (typical: 2148)
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16106 (typical: 412.5)
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.7% (typical: 85.6%)
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (typical: 15.9%)

Disease area and drugs

Disease areas: cancer, digestive
Drugs matched to FDA substances: atezolizumab, bevacizumab, tiragolumab, tobemstomig

Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.

Similar finished trials

Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab as Neoadjuvant Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) NCT03510871 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
Neoadjuvant Anti-PD1 in HCC NCT05471674 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
Pembrolizumab in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma as Second-line Treatment After Failure of Sorafenib NCT03163992 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
Safety and Efficacy of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Placebo as Adjuvant Therapy in Participants With Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) and Complete Radiological Response After Surgical Resection or Local Ablation (MK-3475-937 / KEYNOTE-937) NCT03867084 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
A Study of Atezolizumab (Tecentriq) in Combination With Bevacizumab to Investigate Safety and Efficacy in Patients With Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Not Previously Treated With Systemic Therapy-Amethista NCT04487067 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.