Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Povorcitinib in Adults With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcancerheart failurecoronarymalignancies
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsscreeningand safetydiseasesevaluate the
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 35.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2b Study of EVO756 in Adults With Moderate to Severe Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria (CSU) NCT06873516 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• This Was a Dose-finding Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of LOU064 in Patients With CSU Inadequately Controlled by H1-antihistamines NCT03926611 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of Efficacy and Safety of Remibrutinib in the Treatment of CSU in Adults Inadequately Controlled by H1 Antihistamines NCT05030311 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of Efficacy and Safety of Remibrutinib in the Treatment of CSU in Adults Inadequately Controlled by H1-antihistamines NCT05032157 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Safety Study of Xolair (Omalizumab) in Patients With Chronic Idiopathic Urticaria (CIU) Who Remain Symptomatic Despite Treatment With H1 Antihistamines, H2 Blockers, and/or Leukotriene Receptor Antagonists NCT01264939 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.