A Study of Samuraciclib and Elacestrant in Participants With Metastatic or Locally Advanced HR+/HER2-negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2metastaticcellreceptor
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsopen labeladultlabel studyhepatic
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 41.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Samuraciclib in Combination With Fulvestrant in Metastatic or Locally Advanced Breast Cancer in Adult Participants NCT05963984 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Amcenestrant (SAR439859) Plus Palbociclib as First Line Therapy for Patients With ER (+) HER2(-) Advanced Breast Cancer NCT04478266 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
• Sapanisertib in Combination With Fulvestrant in Women With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer After Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy NCT02756364 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• PALbociclib Rechallenge in horMone Receptor-posItive/HER2- Negative Advanced Breast Cancer (PALMIRA) NCT03809988 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• A Study of Abemaciclib (LY2835219) in Women With HR+, HER2+ Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02675231 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.