A Study of Samuraciclib in Combination With Fulvestrant in Metastatic or Locally Advanced Breast Cancer in Adult Participants

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2receptorpriormetastatic breast
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateevaluate thelinefirst doseendocrine
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Samuraciclib and Elacestrant in Participants With Metastatic or Locally Advanced HR+/HER2-negative Breast Cancer NCT05963997 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Randomized Trial of Fulvestrant With or Without Dasatinib in Men and Postmenopausal Women Who Have Hormone Receptor-positive Advanced Breast Cancer Previously Treated With an Aromatase Inhibitor NCT00754325 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study of BKM120/Placebo With Fulvestrant in Postmenopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor Positive HER2-negative Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Refractory to Aromatase Inhibitor NCT01610284 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib (PD-0332991) Combined With Fulvestrant In Hormone Receptor+ HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer After Endocrine Failure (PALOMA-3) NCT01942135 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Study of BKM120 With Fulvestrant in Patients With HR+,HER2-, AI Treated, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Progressed on or After mTORi NCT01633060 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.