A Trial to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of Delgocitinib Cream in Chinese Adults and Adolescents With Moderate to Severe Chronic Hand Eczema

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomatherapybaselinefailure
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsthe trialmoderatesafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 178 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Delgocitinib Cream in Adults With Moderate to Severe Chronic Hand Eczema (DELTA 2) NCT04872101 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Delgocitinib Cream in Adults With Moderate to Severe Chronic Hand Eczema NCT04871711 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A 24 Week Trial to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Delgocitinib Cream 20 mg/g Twice-daily With Alitretinoin Capsules Once-daily in Adult Participants With Severe Chronic Hand Eczema NCT05259722 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Delgocitinib Cream in Adolescents 12-17 Years of Age With Moderate to Severe Chronic Hand Eczema NCT05355818 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Phase 2b Dose-ranging Trial to Evaluate Delgocitinib Cream 1, 3, 8, and 20 mg/g Compared to Delgocitinib Cream Vehicle Over a 16-week Treatment Period in Adult Subjects With Chronic Hand Eczema NCT03683719 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.