A Study of hSTC810 in Combination With Paclitaxel in Relapsed or Refractory Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-08-25, after 2024-02-13 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: smalllung cancercell lungstageof study
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineinfluenzamalefemaleprotocol defined -
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 89649 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9425 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of NK012 in Patients With Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00951613 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Carboplatin, Etoposide, and Atezolizumab With or Without Trilaciclib (G1T28), a CDK4/6 Inhibitor, in Extensive-Stage SCLC NCT03041311 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- A Study of BMS-986012 in Combination With Carboplatin, Etoposide, and Nivolumab as First-line Therapy in Extensive-stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04702880 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- SC-002 in Small Cell Lung Cancer and Large Cell Neuroendocrine Carcinoma NCT02500914 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
- A Phase III Study to Investigate Efficacy and Safety of HLX10 + Chemotherapy in Patients With ES-SCLC NCT04063163 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.