A Study of BMS-986012 in Combination With Carboplatin, Etoposide, and Nivolumab as First-line Therapy in Extensive-stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecelllung cancersmallcarboplatin
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsjointcombinationamericanclinical trial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 83 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 166183 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 24362 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 7 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of BMS-986012 in Combination With Platinum and Etoposide NCT02815592 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• BMS-986012 in Relapsed/Refractory SCLC NCT02247349 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-833923 With Carboplatin and Etoposide Followed by BMS-833923 Alone in Subjects With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00927875 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Preliminary Efficacy of BMS-986489 in Chinese Participants With Relapsed/Refractory Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT06799286 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Study of Carboplatin Plus Etoposide With or Without Atezolizumab in Participants With Untreated Extensive-Stage (ES) Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) NCT02763579 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.