BMS-986012 in Relapsed/Refractory SCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: small cellcancerlungdiseasedefined
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineor suspectedpharmacokineticsimmunogenicityknown or
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 106 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 12 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 462 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Preliminary Efficacy of BMS-986489 in Chinese Participants With Relapsed/Refractory Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT06799286 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Study of BMS-986012 in Subjects With Small Cell Lung Caner NCT02949895 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-986012 in Combination With Carboplatin, Etoposide, and Nivolumab as First-line Therapy in Extensive-stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04702880 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Trial of BMS-986012 in Combination With Platinum and Etoposide NCT02815592 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-986442 With Nivolumab With or Without Chemotherapy in Solid Tumors and Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT05543629 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.