Trial of BMS-986012 in Combination With Platinum and Etoposide

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancercell lungsmall cellstagetherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: in combinationcombination withvisitmaledefined inclusion
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 92 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12726 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of BMS-986012 in Combination With Carboplatin, Etoposide, and Nivolumab as First-line Therapy in Extensive-stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04702880 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-833923 With Carboplatin and Etoposide Followed by BMS-833923 Alone in Subjects With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00927875 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Study of BMS-986012 in Subjects With Small Cell Lung Caner NCT02949895 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• BMS-986012 in Relapsed/Refractory SCLC NCT02247349 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Trial in Extensive-Disease Small Cell Lung Cancer (ED-SCLC) Subjects Comparing Ipilimumab Plus Etoposide and Platinum Therapy to Etoposide and Platinum Therapy Alone NCT01450761 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.