Study of MT-8421 as Monotherapy and in Combination With Nivolumab in Patients With Selected Advanced Solid Cancer Types
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-10-31, after 2023-11-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: canceradvancedcellpriorsolid
Phrases that lowered it: hepatitis viruscd4hivopen90 -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8090 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 100% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 77434 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8090 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory, digestive, dermatology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Personal Cancer Vaccine (NEO-PV-01) and APX005M or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT03597282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
- Study of MT-6402 in Subjects With Advanced Solid Cancer That Expresses PD-L1 NCT04795713 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- Nivolumab Ipilimumab in Patients With hyperMutated Cancers Detected in Blood (NIMBLe) NCT03461952 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
- Relationship Between Tumor Mutation Burden and Predicted Neo-antigen Burden in Patients With Advanced Melanoma or Bladder Cancer Treated With Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab (CA209-260) NCT02553642 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Metastatic or Recurrent Human Papilloma Virus-Related Cervical Cancer NCT01693783 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.