Efficacy and Safety of LP-003 in Moderate-to-severe Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis Adult

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsubjects withsubjects whopriorocular
  Phrases that lowered it: rhinitisnasalallergenallergicige
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of CM310 in Subjects With Allergic Rhinitis NCT05908032 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study on the Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of SHR-1819 Injection in Patients With Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis NCT07091357 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of PA9159 Nasal Spray for the Treatment of Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis NCT05234580 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of PG-011 Nasal Spray in Adults With Moderate to Severe Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis NCT06837233 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Allergen Challenge Trial of IRL201104 in Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis NCT05098522 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.